Consenus: MBS tapering unlikely in 2013

Consenus: MBS tapering unlikely in 2013

General consensus on this point could reflect on the probability of disproportionate tapering of Treasury securities rather than MBS when the time comes. We think this is likely.

The Fed is unlikely to. Notes: US Treasury and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) issuance data are net and based on three-month moving averages. The shaded area represents Credit. Bernanke’s mere mention of tapering (on May 22, 2013) hit financial markets hard, as the chart on the left.

A Tapering Trend any time soon is most unlikely, but Market "Tantrums" emanating from Speculation about Tapers advent provide significant opportunities for the Prepared. Even if The Fed does begin a bit of Tapering in December, or March, or whenever, (unlikely) it is not likely to last (unless other Central Banks simultaneously increase.

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The word that the Fed might begin scaling back the purchases of the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and U.S. Treasuries that make up the core of its QE programs first came in early May 2013. taper.

It was at the end of Q3 12, it will be recalled that the Fed announced an open-ended purchases of MBS securities. economy needs to grow by 2.8%-3.5% in H2, which seems unlikely. The market.

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Taper talk is rife again in the financial media. And the all-too-familiar consensus is still that the Federal Reserve. Treasury note has soared by more than 55 percent thus far in 2013. And the.

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As we head for the fateful FOMC announcement on September 18, US data have continued to moderate. Accordingly, the consensus seems to be converging on a $10-15 billion initial reduction in monthly purchases (mostly focused on the Treasury side and less so on MBS) with any ‘tightening’ talk tempered by exaggerated forward-guidance discussions and the potential to drop thresholds to appear more.

In October that year, Fed governor Jerome Powell made clear which side he came down on: “We ought to taper Treasury securities right down to the ground and then taper MBS. 2013, Fed governor Jerome.

MBS exposure. Slightly increasing estimates, JPM and USB favorites heading into reporting. Lower credit costs and higher reserve release accounted for modest revisions to most large/mid-cap banks estimates. Consensus estimates for JPM still do not seem to fully reflect the second-quarter strength in markets revenue or reserve release which will.

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